Hello Everyone! I'm back after a fairly long absence from Rusty Machete (and, to a lesser extent, Magic in general) with a look at what's going on in extended- with the first modo ptq done and several real-life ptq's soon to come, we've no time to waste.
While I'm assuming everyone reading this is already slightly familiar with the format, I'm still going to start by going through the major players and sharing my thoughts on them.
Faeries
As I said, we've no time to waste, so let's start with today's premier threat, the Fae. Several good articles have come out recently on what exact lists are looking like, but playing around all the old contenders like Mana Leak, Sprite, and both Cliques is a sure thing. As to what removal faeries is packing, Doom Blade, Smother, Agony Warp, and Disfigure are all maindeck possibilities, and while I'm preferential for Warp myself, that's not an excuse to play around any or all of them as well as possible. Another card that's being showing up a lot lately is Scion of Oona; honestly, I'm not entirely sure why, since this guy seems pretty rancid against Volcanic Fallout and I can't see him actually being a card I'd want to draw in more than a handful of situations against the top decks, but he's out there, so being aware of that card's existence to avoid blowouts is a must if possible.
Playing against Faeries can be difficult given the amount of instant speed cards that are in their deck. All I can say is that generally the best approach is to figure out what your role in the matchup is and, given your hand, force yourself into that role, no matter how awkward that seems- With Jund, for example, you just can't keep a hand that doesn't have an early creature or possibly even two early threats if you're on the draw at seven cards. If you're trying to be the control, you can play more passively and force the Faeries deck to make the first move- though their deck is designed to do this because of their instant speed threats, it will still give you a slight advantage provided their first move isn't a turn two blossom. This can also depend on your hand and their board state. Once Faeries gets ahead, it's going to be difficult to catch up, but they have the power to come out of nowhere to win games, largely on the back on their 8 pseudo time walk effects (Cryptic and Mistbind). Transformational sideboards are also not out of the question, but the important idea here is to have a game plan in mind against them, because nothing stomps decks that don't know what they're doing more than the Fae.
Wargate (Omen/Scapeshift)
This deck is the hardest for me to evaluate, since many different lists have been popping up recently, some with more white in them and others with more red. The advantage of red is that you can kill with Scapeshift and no Omen, but realistically this is kind of farfetched, and for the sake of consistency as well as sideboard flexibility I'd recommend the straight Bant version. Another question is whether to maindeck Leyline or not, and, here again, I'm not quite sure; this could just be metagame dependent. Generally, I don't like to clog up my maindeck with sideboard cards, but the benefits here can be pretty extreme, so I'm not going to reject it offhand.
The key to realizing how this deck works is to treat it as an Omen deck first and a Scapeshift deck second. Sure, Scapeshift can just kill someone, but most decks won't be able to beat Omen/Valakut anyways since it's not hard to find a land (or multiple lands) each turn with this deck. Resolving Omen or Wargate for Omen is therefore a priority, though it's okay to wait back and work on mana advantage if your opponent is content to do the same. Winning the die roll is super important in the aggro matchups as well as against Fae, where sticking an early Omen just may be the only way to win. Speaking of the Faeries matchup, Brad Nelson recently advocating heavily testing it to figure it out, and while I'm not one to speak against him, I can't imagine it being anything other than awful- Fae's entire deck is a nightmare for the Omen deck, and short of sticking an Omen and nat drawing Valakut, I honestly don't see how this deck can win more than the occasional game (barring some sort of sideboard tech, obviously).
Jund
Another holdover from standard, this deck makes use of Bloodbraid Elf and Lightning Bolt, but the difference is that the extended Jund deck is forced to be aggressive rather than arrition based. This is because of the format- the control decks are simply too powerful in the late game, and the combo decks clock quickly enough that a reasonable clock coming back is necessitated. The main questions for the deck are whether to play Fauna/Demigod and then what three drops to play. I myself am a fan of Sprouting Thrinax, since he is a respectable body that dominantes any creature based fights, even if he goes against the more aggressive philosophy of the deck. Ram Gang is of course also reasonable, as is Finks, and Anathemancer maindeck is arguable as well. All of these fight with Blightning and Pulse, though, so it's important to prioritize just which three drops you want to play. When playing against Jund, or course, it's important to remember that your opponent could be playing any or (probably not) all of them.
4 (or 5) Color Control
The upside of this deck is that it has access to basically every card in the format. The downside is that it requires a manabase with many comes into play tapped lands, adding another degree of lethargy to an already slow deck. The thing that appeals to me about a deck like this is that it's possible to configure it for any metagame or playing style, but this also leaves a lot of room for error. Anathemancer is also a huge problem for this deck especially, as is an unchecked Fauna Shaman. While this deck doesn't have any outright unwinnable matchups, it doesn't have any really good ones either- Omen and Fae are certainly not matchups I'd want to face with it, and I wouldn't feel entirely safe against Jund either. This is not a deck I'd recommend unless you feel really comfortable with it and you've tested the main matchups with sideboarding.
Ooze Combo
I'm actually a little surprised people still play this deck in its original form- the list seems a little dated. All the LD is pretty irrelevant in a lot of matchups- Fae doesn't care and Omen can just play their valakuts around it. While the combo itself is inherently powerful, I'd like to see a different shell. A while back, some of the Rusty crew were working on a version with Knight of the Reliquary that could be a little more aggressive and play solid threats aside from Fauna and Ooze, which is an idea I really like. Upping the threat density in a deck like this makes every card in it so much more powerful since your opponent has to expend their resources with more caution. If you're thinking about playing this, I'd recommend trying out some new configurations since there's plenty of room for innovation. Oh, and one more note, make sure you know how the combo works and that you've run through it a few times. Nothing sucks worse than punting an on board win in those types of situations.
Elf Combo
This deck looks more like the standard deck from a couple of summers ago than its old extended version. The basic idea here is to ramp into big spells like Ranger of Eos, Regal Force, and Primal Command, finishing eithier with a ton of damage or a full out combo kill. The deck has some really explosive starts, and the elemnent of Rangering for Joraga Warcaller gives it an element of staying power that it didn't have before. This is deck not to be underestimated- while I'm not saying it'll be one of the top couple contenders, it's one to key your eye on. Again, there's room for innovation here since there aren't that many cards that are a requisite 4-of in this type of deck. When playing against it, being able to either obtain an early advantage through removal or trying to shut down their big threats are the two primary avenues of attack, and doing either one very well should be enough to win.
Other decks that exist include Monored (as always), White Weenie, Doran, Pestermite/Splinter Twin, and Pyromancer's Ascension. Notice anything about that list? There are a couple of "fringe" combo decks (again, as always), but the other three decks are what would usually be considered the three premier aggro decks of the format. Where have the aggressive decks gone? And why?
The primary answer is that the card pool available for control decks is just so much more efficient than the card pool available to aggro decks. While there are some powerful, aggressive spells in the current extended, there are many more powerful control cards, and there's no shortage of removal in any color for anyone who cares to play it. In addition, the combo matchups aren't actually byes- the combo decks can goldfish almost as fast as the aggro decks, and they get to play Cryptic Command.
Perhaps the problem is that there hasn't been an aggro deck properly designed to attack the format, but then again how do we do that? Naya may make a resurgence, but the list was actually standard legal last season and even then it wasn't unstoppably good, so I have my doubts. Perhaps the answer is to be as linear as possible, in that vain, by presenting as many threats as possible and not focusing on removal, burn, or disruption. Or, maybe the answer is to go the other way and try to back up a more limited, but efficient, number of threats, with disruption- after all, there are 3 one-mana discard spells available in extended right now.
That's about all I have to say for now-I'll be back next week with a full report from the ptq in Indianapolis this weekend. Wish me luck!
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